The world is living in a very tense atmosphere on more than one front. An unintended breach in any of them could lead to the outbreak of a nuclear war, the extent of which cannot be predicted. Only a few minutes is the time needed to implement the decision of either the US or Russian presidents to use nuclear weapons. These concerns have returned to the fore after Russia suspended its participation in the new START treaty to limit nuclear weapons.
Russia and the United States possess about 90% of the global nuclear arsenal, which includes 12,700 nuclear bombs. Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads, with an estimated 6,000 nuclear warheads. It is followed by the United States with more than 5,400 nuclear warheads. The Russian nuclear arsenal includes 1,588 warheads in the strategic launch mode and about 4,390 warheads in storage or retirement mode. On the other hand, the US nuclear arsenal is divided into 1,644 warheads in strategic launch mode, and about 3,665 warheads in storage or retirement mode.
Indeed, the past few days have been fraught with an exchange of accusations between Washington and Beijing that each of them is taking “provocative” steps toward the other. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters during a visit to Tokyo a few days ago that he “regretted” his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu’s refusal to meet with him, expecting an incident that “could quickly get out of control.” This is after Chinese warplanes carried out, on Friday, what they described as “provocative interceptions” of a US military reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea.
For its part, Beijing said, through a spokeswoman on its behalf, that “the United States clearly knows the reason for the difficulties that currently exist in military communications.” Earlier, the Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced what it described as the US’s “provocative and dangerous maneuvers,” which Beijing considered “a source of problems for maritime security.” This is where the US military announced that “a Chinese pilot flying a J-16 fighter performed an unnecessary aggressive maneuver while intercepting a US Air Force RC-135” operating over the South China Sea. The army also added that “the Chinese pilot flew directly in front of the American plane, forcing it to fly into turbulence.”
On another level, US President Joe Biden’s administration responded to Russia’s suspension of the “New START” nuclear treaty by announcing the cancellation of visas for Russian nuclear inspectors, the rejection of pending applications for new monitors, and the cancellation of standard permits for Russian aircraft to enter US airspace.
The State Department said it was taking these and other steps in response to Russia’s “continued violations” of the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control treaty between the two countries, which are currently at loggerheads over Russia’s private military operation in Ukraine.
It is important to note that Russia’s suspension of the START Treaty does not necessarily mean that the world is approaching a nuclear war, but it does show the exacerbation of geopolitical tensions between the major powers.
With time, the risks and challenges related to nuclear weapons increase, and it is important for major countries to work to reduce these risks and limit the spread of nuclear weapons. These efforts include the nuclear states’ commitment to arms control treaties, limiting spending on nuclear weapons, and working to reduce the number of nuclear warheads.
Once countries begin to enhance their nuclear programs and increase the number of nuclear warheads they have or withdraw from related treaties, this increases the risks related to nuclear weapons and makes nuclear war more likely. Therefore, the major countries must work seriously to reduce tensions and reduce the risks related to nuclear weapons. The first of these tensions is the Ukrainian crisis, which is also witnessing European attempts to rein in the US administration, which wants to escalate.
Dr. Hatem Sadek: Professor at Helwan University
