Why did Egypt’s inflation increase during June 2023?

Hossam Mounir
3 Min Read

Egypt’s annual urban inflation increased to 35.7% in June 2023 from 32.7% in May 2023.

The acceleration continued to be driven by higher food and non-food prices. Annual food and non-food inflation increased to 65.9% and 20.9% in June 2023, respectively.

Following its pick up in May 2023, annual core inflation increased to 41% in June 2023 from 40.3% during the previous month. On a monthly basis, core inflation recorded 1.7% in June 2023, compared to 1.2% in June 2022.

Monthly urban inflation recorded 2.1% in June 2023 which remains higher than its usual monthly pattern.

Non-Food inflation increased due to a market increase in tobacco prices, in addition to higher retail items and services prices. Retail items’ prices reflected the price increase of clothing, medical products, households’ appliances, household cleaning products and personal cleaning products, among others.

The increase in services prices reflected mainly higher prices of restaurants and cafes, haircuts, and outpatient services. Despite its deceleration, monthly food inflation contributed positively to headline inflation mainly driven by higher core food prices (red meat and poultry, among others), besides higher prices of fresh fruits which were mostly offset by lower prices of fresh vegetables.

Annual inflation in rural areas increased to 37.8% in June 2023 from 34.6% in May 2023.

Additionally, the annual inflation of the whole country increased to 36.8% in June 2023 from 33.7% in May 2023.

Prices of fresh vegetables declined by 2.6% while fresh fruits increased by 5.8%. Together, they  contributed by 0.01% to monthly headline inflation.

Prices of red meat and poultry increased by 6.2% and 1.8%, respectively. Accordingly, they contributed by 0.37 and 0.11% to monthly headline inflation, respectively.

Prices of fish and seafood increased by 2.1%, contributing by 0.07% to monthly headline inflation. 

Prices of market rice declined by 2.6%, to contribute by -0.05% to monthly headline inflation.

Prices of other core food items including dairy products, market tea, sugar and pulses, among others, increased to contribute by 0.23% to monthly headline inflation.

Prices of regulated items increased by 4.1%, to contribute by 0.79% to monthly headline inflation.This was mainly due to increases in tobacco prices.

Prices of retail items increased by 2.1%, contributing by 0.28% to monthly headline inflation. This was mainly due to an increase in the prices of household cleaning products, personal care products, gold, clothing, medical products and household appliances.

Prices of services increased by 0.9% to contribute by 0.27% to monthly headline inflation. This was primarily due to higher expenditure on restaurants and cafes, rents, and haircuts.

Monthly core inflation was affected by price changes of the aforementioned core CPI items. Core food items, services, and retail items contributed by 0.97, 0.36, and 0.37% to monthly core inflation, respectively.

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