The United States, with all its departments and agencies, will soon enter the year of the presidential elections. This battle is a continuous and fierce conflict between Republicans and Democrats, but it becomes more intense as we approach the final year of the current occupant of the White House. At this time, all restrictions will be lifted, all taboos will be allowed, and all red lines that separate what is acceptable and what is not will be erased from the record of American policy.
This time the situation seems different, as both candidates have a proven record of strategic mistakes that exceed the boundaries of the constants in the American elections set by the founding fathers.
Former President Donald Trump, the most likely candidate among Republicans, has faced many challenges since he left the White House to its new residents three years ago. The most dangerous of these consequences is the storming of the US Congress by his supporters, ethical violations, and some cases of corruption and tax evasion. However, all opinion polls indicate that he is ahead by a large margin over current President Joe Biden. This is of course a surprising matter. What are Biden’s mistakes that make the American voter prefer his rival, who is accused of inciting his supporters to storm the building of the most prestigious legislative institution in America and disrupt the transfer of power?
Biden is an elderly man who already suffers from the ailments of old age. He is either absent from the scene or is in it and does not know what to do or say. Biden may be the only American president who has footage and pictures that reveal the extent of the decline of his mental state. Sometimes you find him greeting someone who is not there, or thanking a dead person and inviting him to attend an event. As for the pictures of his fall, they are numerous and widespread, whether from the stairs of the plane or his bike, or shots of him stumbling in the corridors. This situation has not previously been reported to American voters, perhaps most recently by former President Ronald Reagan, who used to sleep more than 12 hours a day, but at least in his time, the United States won the Cold War and the Soviet Union collapsed.
A few days ago, the US House of Representatives opened an official investigation to impeach President Joe Biden over his son Hunter’s controversial international business activities, in a move that the White House master considered a “baseless political maneuver.” The chances of this investigation being successful are almost non-existent, but it may distract Biden’s efforts in his attempt to win a second term in the presidential elections scheduled for November 2024. Republicans, who have held a majority of seats in the House of Representatives since the beginning of the year, accuse Biden of abusing his influence when he was Vice President Barack Obama (2009-2017) to enable his son to conduct dubious business activities in China and Ukraine.
Biden faces limited influence over two international conflicts that have negatively affected his presidency: the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. More than four weeks after the Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli military response in Gaza, and after 20 months of war in Ukraine, Biden’s mistakes have led to a decline in his popularity.
Regarding the Israeli issue, the American newspaper “The New York Times” reported that the Biden administration had been urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to allow a “humanitarian truce” in Gaza and make more efforts to avoid civilian casualties. The American administration hoped that the annual military aid of 3.8 billion US dollars that the United States provides to Israel would influence Netanyahu’s decisions. But this did not happen, and Netanyahu confirmed that he would continue with what he called “the greatest revenge” against Hamas. Warnings from within the United States suggest that its unlimited support for Israel, most recently triggered by the M830A1 munitions deal, will backfire, as it will destabilize the country and increase popular discontent with the spending of the country’s resources on external conflicts.
As for the situation in Ukraine, it is equally complicated. The highest-ranking Ukrainian military commander, Valery Zalozhny, described the situation as a “stalemate” with both sides of the conflict unable to achieve significant progress or success in military operations. The concern here is that General Zalozhny’s honest admission of the stalemate could have negative consequences. This could make it harder to persuade Republicans to support substantial funding for the war in Ukraine, and they will be less willing to allocate resources to a conflict that they think has reached a stalemate. Moreover, there is a fear that this stalemate will encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to maintain the status quo and try to extend it until the next US presidential elections, hoping that Donald Trump, if elected, or any other Republican, will reduce or withdraw US support for Ukraine.
Internal criticism in America is growing, as many believe that US President Joe Biden is “dragging” America into several international conflicts. Biden’s justification for this as a “global conflict between democracy and tyranny” is, in fact, a justification that has lost its historical validity throughout America’s foreign wars, from Vietnam to the invasion of Iraq, through the fiasco of Afghanistan.
The American people have become more reluctant to pay for military aid to conflicts abroad indefinitely, as recent opinion polls have shown a drop in support among Democrats and Republicans for both Israel and Ukraine.
Analysts believe that this policy brought nothing but “hostility” to Washington in the world. This is a realistic view. The coming weeks indicate the possibility of decisive changes in American policies towards the hot issues, whether in Gaza or Ukraine or even with China. Perhaps we will see a radical change in this policy so that Washington addresses regional and international issues in a way that is more in line with reality and not according to the vision of specific American parties (the Pentagon, the US State Department), which cost it a lot of its already diminished credibility, both in the region and in the world.
Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
