The conflict started with a Hamas attack on 7 October on Israeli settlements near the Gaza Strip. Soon after, it escalated to include southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, operates. As the conflict entered its third month, another Iranian-backed group, the Houthis in Yemen, joined the fray, launching missile and drone attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea that are suspected to be Israeli or American.
The situation seems to be heading towards more tension in the Middle East, while the Gaza war shows no sign of ending. Based on the balance of power, one or both sides of the crisis will soon collapse, as the key player in this conflict faces immense internal and external pressures that it cannot withstand. In less than two weeks, the United States will enter the presidential election year, and President Joe Biden’s position is the weakest, due to his age, his failures in Ukraine and Israel, the corruption scandals involving his son, and his indecisiveness since taking office.
But the real problem is that the longer the war lasts, the more problems and consequences it will create. Targeting commercial ships in an international waterway raises the stakes of the crisis. These attacks are now affecting more than 30% of the global trade volume that goes to Europe and the western Mediterranean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. After the attacks, major international shipping companies announced a halt to their ships’ movement through this route because of the high risks and insurance costs.
The global trade movement is facing a huge challenge as it is barely recovering from the impacts of previous disasters, such as the Corona pandemic, which was followed by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The United States is now trying to form a military alliance to protect the strategic waters near Iran and Yemen. According to the plan, which will be finalized in the next few days, Washington will provide command ships to the military coalition and lead its surveillance and reconnaissance efforts. The American initiative also involves members of the coalition escorting their commercial ships.
Moreover, Iran occasionally threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil, if it is prevented from exporting its oil. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been worried about the Houthi fighters allied with Iran, especially after they attacked Bab al-Mandab.
About four million barrels of oil pass through Bab al-Mandab every day to Europe, the United States, and Asia, along with other commercial goods. As the Houthi attacks intensify, leading companies in the industry have started to divert some ships associated with Israel and express concern about the growing attacks, but the economic repercussions could be much wider if the Houthi anti-shipping activity continues or worsens.
Recent maritime data showed that Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, especially those linked to Israel, have forced some companies to reroute their ships around Africa to reach Europe and Asia, adding to their transit time. The risk of major disruption to global trade is high as long as commercial ships of different nationalities are targeted by attacks from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
The war between Hamas and Israel has worsened the threat to domestic maritime security in the past few years. Before that, the Houthis only targeted ships of countries involved in the Saudi-led coalition war in Yemen.
The movement’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said clearly in a speech on 14 November: “Our eyes are open for permanent monitoring and searching for any Israeli ship in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab specifically, and what borders the Yemeni territorial waters.” We are currently observing an increase in attacks on commercial ships passing through the Red Sea.
The impact of the Red Sea attacks may seem limited for now, but the risk of escalation or miscalculation that may cause bigger shocks to trade cannot be overlooked. Protecting freedom of navigation in this waterway is vital for energy security and the global economy.
However, if Houthi attacks intensify and disrupt shipping traffic in the Red Sea severely, both global energy security and dry goods trade will face another setback, especially in Europe, which is still recovering from the huge impact of the Ukrainian war.
Sadly, if these attacks grow and widen in scope, they will have serious consequences, mainly related to the effects on the global economy and regional countries and the risks of military escalation in the Middle East.
Surprisingly, many of the fleets of the great powers are present in the Houthi area of operations, and they surely have all the capabilities to restrain this faction, whose military strength seems to be weak or outdated. So far, these forces have not been able to stop the Houthi attacks, maybe because the time has not come yet, or maybe because some think that not all attacks are harmful, but only some of them, especially if the aim is to reduce the trade of a country like China, which is the strongest opponent of American hegemony.
Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
