For the first time in nine quarters, PC shipments experienced a sliver of growth in Q4 2023, rising 0.3% year-over-year to 63.3 million units, according to Gartner. This fragile turnaround marks the end of a two-year slump, though 2023 still saw a significant 14.8% decline to 241.8 million units shipped – the lowest volume since 2006.
“The PC market has bottomed out,” declared Mikako Kitagawa, Gartner analyst. “Normalized inventory levels, after a two-year struggle, suggest demand and supply have finally found balance.” However, Kitagawa warns of potential headwinds in 2024: “Component price hikes, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic instability could easily disrupt this fragile equilibrium.”
Vendor Landscape:
Notably, the top six vendors retained their positions in Q4, demonstrating resilience despite mixed performance. Lenovo, HP, Apple, and Acer enjoyed year-over-year growth, while Dell and ASUS faced decline. Lenovo, after eight quarters of stagnation, saw a welcome 3.2% increase, driven by strong laptop sales in EMEA and Latin America. HP continued its upward trajectory with its second consecutive quarter of growth, while Dell extended its year-over-year decline to seven quarters.
Regional Insights:
The US market, reflecting a stabilizing consumer confidence, saw its first year-over-year growth since Q2 2021, with laptops leading the charge despite a dip in desktops. HP retained the top spot with a 27.7% share.
EMEA, with an 8.7% growth, stood out as the bright spot, fueled by normalized inventory levels. However, Kitagawa cautioned that rising interest rates could make distributors wary of building up inventory, potentially stalling future growth.
Asia Pacific, plagued by China’s economic woes, remained in decline, with laptops and desktops struggling across the region. Greater China saw a double-digit year-over-year decline, dragging down the overall market, while Mature Asia Pacific experienced a slight dip and Emerging Asia Pacific managed a single-digit gain.
2023, with its 14.8% decline, marks the worst year in PC history. However, the cautious optimism of Q4 suggests the market may have turned a corner. Gartner predicts a return to annual growth in 2024, albeit tempered by the looming uncertainties.
