Russia’s recent actions have triggered panic in the United States and anger across Europe, reigniting global concerns about the implications of the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. This renewed focus comes after media attention shifted to the Israeli occupation forces’ actions in the Gaza Strip.
One significant development is Russia’s strengthening ties with Cuba. Recently, four Russian Navy vessels, including a nuclear-powered submarine, docked in Cuba for a five-day visit. Washington closely monitored these military activities, despite Russian assurances that their presence posed no threat to the United States. However, the arrival of a nuclear submarine and other naval ships on the island has raised alarm.
The Russia-Cuba relationship holds strategic importance. With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russia perceives this as an existential threat and a direct provocation. Cuba, often referred to as the United States’ backyard, lies just a few hundred kilometres from Miami in Florida. The growing alignment between Russia and Cuba, coupled with Cuba’s opposition to NATO expansion toward Russia’s borders, intensifies concerns for US security.
The possibility of Russian missiles being placed in Cuba worries US officials. This concern emerged after then-president Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019. The treaty required both the US and Russia to eliminate medium- and shorter-range missiles (ranging from 500 to 5,500 kilometres). In response, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia would take similar action if the US deployed banned missiles in Europe. Media reports suggested that Cuba, located 300-400 kilometres from the southern US shores, could potentially host these missiles.
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 remains a haunting historical precedent. This confrontation between the United States, the Soviet Union, and Cuba during the Cold War came perilously close to triggering a nuclear war.
The debate surrounding the potential deployment of Russian missiles in Cuba may seem like mere speculation and guesswork without solid evidence. However, the economic pressures imposed on Cuba by the United States, along with the provocations aimed at Russia, could lead to a possible nuclear conflict between the two countries. Cuba is currently grappling with a serious economic downturn due to escalating sanctions initiated by President Trump and continued by President Biden. These sanctions have pushed Cuba into closer alignment with Russia and China. Meanwhile, Russia’s increased military presence in Latin America, particularly in Cuba, acts as a deterrent against overexpansion by Washington and NATO. This manoeuvre enables Russia to pose a threat to the United States in its immediate vicinity, in response to the growing American influence within Russia’s sphere of influence. It is worth noting that the bond between Russia and Cuba has significantly strengthened following the 2022 meeting between Díaz-Canel and Putin, with Vladimir Putin referring to the ties with Cuba as “strategic.”
The second move that carries significant risks is Putin’s trip to North Korea. During the visit, Russia and North Korea finalized a broad strategic cooperation agreement covering security, military, and political areas. The agreement aims to enhance the mutual relationship and resist Western pressures and American sanctions. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the agreement includes clauses for reciprocal aid in case of aggression, effectively functioning as a joint military defence pact. This situation poses a specific and unforeseeable threat, especially given the provocative stance of the Biden administration, which adds to the weight of the American provocation.
Notably, Ukraine is not the only country concerned about the implications of the alliance between Russia and North Korea. The United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also alarmed by this alliance. High-ranking officials from various nations have expressed their apprehension about the growing partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Michael Carpenter from the White House National Security Council have emphasized their concerns over the potential support Russia could offer to North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, which heightens the threat to Ukraine and European security.”
However, the primary concern was for South Korea, as reported by Yonhap, which called on Russia to cease military cooperation with North Korea immediately and behave responsibly. This is significant because Article 4 of the treaty between Russia and North Korea allows for automatic military intervention in case of an attack on either nation, effectively reinstating the Cold War-era alliance 28 years after the termination of their mutual defence treaty in 1996. South Korea emphasized in the announcement that “Russia must act responsibly,” and also emphasized that South Korea, in conjunction with the international community, “will respond firmly to any actions that pose a threat to the country’s security,” as the situation has reached a point where North Korea “will not hesitate” to use nuclear weapons, according to the statement.
The provided equation is completely balanced and clear. If the United States and NATO take actions that provoke and threaten Russia, it is essential to acknowledge that Russia can respond and provoke the United States and Europe. The use of sanctions as a tool has been ineffective, leading to serious consequences. Currently, due to these sanctions, we are facing a new global landscape that includes Russia, China, and North Korea in a single alliance. It is not an overstatement to propose that these alliances could potentially expand into the Middle East through the involvement of Iran and Syria. The double standards and provocations used by the United States under the Biden administration will only contribute to further devastation and destruction on a global scale. It’s important to understand that Russia cannot be compared to Iraq or Afghanistan, so there is no room for exaggerated American arrogance. Russia is a nation capable of deterring its adversaries, and the reckless provocations by the United States might inadvertently lead us toward a catastrophic nuclear conflict.
Dr. Marwa El Shinawy: Academic and Writer
