Hassan Nasrallah has launched his unprecedented strategy, called “Slowly, Slowly”, in response to Israel’s recent transgressions, including the assassination of Fouad Shukr, who served as his chief of staff, and Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau of Hamas.
In his speech commemorating the week since the assassination events, Nasrallah unveiled this groundbreaking strategy that included several noteworthy points which might mitigate military escalation and allow Iran to reconsider its pledge made by the Supreme Leader to directly target Tel Aviv in response to Haniyeh’s assassination. He remarked that Israel’s preparedness and its week-long wait for the anticipated strikes represent a significant form of punishment. Nasrallah also vowed retaliation, but it will be delivered gradually, indicating a deliberate pace. This approach stands in stark contrast to his previous assertions following the assassinations, as he also called for the exclusion of Iran and Syria, asserting that “Tehran is not obligated to engage in perpetual conflict.”
In any case, the tone of retreat in the discourse was rational, as it at least thwarted Netanyahu’s strategy aimed at provoking Iran into a direct conflict, which has been opposed by U.S. President Joe Biden both then and now.
Even before the events of October 7 and the Israeli incursion into Gaza, visible disagreements had emerged between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The latter perceived Biden as arriving late to the leadership of the United States. Despite the consistent support Israel receives from Democratic administrations, there was a belief that under this “aged” leader, Tel Aviv could secure even greater backing. This became evident following the Gaza invasion, highlighted by the presence of American naval fleets off the coast of Israel and their crucial role in countering Iranian aggression after the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Following the October 7 attack, Israel revised its defence strategy, prioritizing the dismantling of what is referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition established by Iran through its military proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza, with Tehran as the primary supporter. On several occasions, Netanyahu attempted to provoke Iran into a military confrontation; however, Biden and the U.S. administration consistently opposed the expansion of conflict zones, fearing that such escalation could lead to a regional war with uncontrollable consequences, as well as the potential involvement of undesirable actors like China and Russia.
Biden has managed, to some extent, to rein in Netanyahu and has succeeded on several occasions, particularly concerning the conflict with Iran. Iran recognized this reality and effectively utilized it to launch an attack on Israel. In April, it carried out a significant offensive involving approximately 300 aerial units, including drones and missiles, as retaliation for the deaths of several of its military leaders in an Israeli strike targeting its consulate in Damascus.
However, the opportunity arose when the American president decided to withdraw from running for a second term following a disastrous debate with former President Donald Trump. This led Biden to become a “lame duck,” significantly diminishing his influence and ability to impose conditions on any party, a situation that persisted until the inauguration of the new president. These circumstances emboldened Netanyahu to adopt a more assertive and independent stance in escalating actions against Iran, aiming to achieve his strategic objective of striking at the heart of the regime and severing its connections. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, during the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, served multiple purposes: eliminating Haniyeh, who was responsible for the October 7 attack; embarrassing Iran and exposing its vulnerability in securing one of its key political events; and shifting the agenda away from what President Masoud Bezhakian had hoped for in improving relations with the West and the United States.
Biden had hoped to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza to conclude his presidential term, but he feels that Prime Minister Netanyahu is manipulating him. In a crucial phone conversation between the two leaders a week ago, he reportedly stated, “Stop deceiving me,” according to the Times of Israel. The New York Times also noted that during this call, Biden expressed that the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran occurred “at a bad time,” particularly as he was optimistic that this would be the final stage in negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
Netanyahu feels emboldened to take action against Iran following Biden’s decision on July 21 to withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential race. This withdrawal marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, particularly as Biden himself is now experiencing considerable frustration due to Netanyahu’s increasing determination to pursue his previous strategy at this critical juncture. There are several reasons for this timing: first, Israel has largely completed its military operations in Gaza, significantly diminishing Hamas’s capabilities. Second, there is currently no strong U.S. president who can impede Israel’s primary objective in the region—Iran. Third, Netanyahu is aware from his recent meetings in Washington that if Kamala Harris were to become president, she would likely adopt a tougher stance on Israel than Biden, who consistently identifies as a Zionist, regardless of whether his policies are supportive of Israel.
In contrast, Harris would exert considerable pressure on Netanyahu to curtail military actions. Even if Trump were to return to the White House, he would not be the same as during his first term, as he is not looking to initiate or escalate conflicts in this new term. Instead, he aims to restore order and resolve ongoing disputes. Therefore, there is no assurance that he would approve military actions. However, the “slow and steady” strategy may have emerged to restore calm to the atmosphere, at least temporarily.
Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan university
