The recent pager operation carried out by Israel in Lebanon last Tuesday morning represented a remarkable advancement in technology, leaving observers in a state of surprise and possibly disbelief.
On Tuesday morning, Israel conducted a cyber operation targeting the pager devices employed by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon. This tactical maneuver involved deploying a virus designed to activate the batteries of these devices. The organization opted for pagers, a communication technology dating back to the late 1980s, following numerous breaches by Israeli intelligence that compromised mobile networks, including the Thuraya system used by Hezbollah. These breaches have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of its members, including several high-ranking leaders, in recent months.
At this moment, the details surrounding the attack, which Israel has not officially confirmed as per usual practice, remain unclear. Nevertheless, the existing evidence is adequate for the time being. The precise number of casualties and injuries has yet to be accurately assessed, with estimates varying between 2,800 and almost 4,000, including a minimum of nine deaths.
The assault, the specifics of which may remain confidential for a considerable duration, has rendered Hezbollah vulnerable and in a state of turmoil. This group, recognized for its rigorous discipline and comprehensive training, makes significant investments in its members and perceives itself as an elite organization.
The current situation is marked by chaos, as a significant number of its members and personnel, exceeding 3,000, were injured on September 17 due to an explosion of communication devices. Disturbing videos, seemingly from hospitals in Lebanon, depict numerous men suffering from severe injuries, including the loss of limbs or wounds to the legs, abdomen, or face.
Sustaining numerous injuries among the key members of the armed group may not be catastrophic; however, it is evident that this will place a significant number of these prominent members in the crosshairs, as they have become distinctly recognizable due to the marks left by the attack, whether from amputations or permanent facial injuries.
Hezbollah has indeed lost approximately 450 fighters during its eleven-month confrontation with Israel. This represents a significant loss for the organization. Typically, the process of replenishing its ranks involves recruiting select and distinguished youth from the predominantly supportive Shia community located in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Hezbollah relies on the Shia population in Lebanon; however, even within this demographic, it cannot recruit all individuals. There are other Shia movements, primarily the Amal Movement, which may not fully align with Hezbollah’s agenda.
One aspect of the chaos, in addition to what has been previously mentioned, is that the overarching challenge currently facing Hezbollah is not merely the replacement of injured and fallen fighters. Rather, it must swiftly devise an alternative means of communication with its personnel along the southern front that borders Israel, as well as within Lebanon itself.
The use of pagers may seem outdated; however, Hezbollah opted for this system under the belief that the network was impervious to interception, a notion that has since been proven incorrect.
For an extended period, Hezbollah has endeavored to maintain its complex and secure communication network within Lebanon. In 2008, the organization was accused of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which subsequently led Lebanon into the 2006 war with Israel. At that time, numerous credible news reports, based on information from Lebanese security sources, indicated that Hezbollah possessed an extensive fixed communication network covering southern Lebanon, eastern regions, and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
The chaos resulting from the detonation of Hezbollah’s pagers has already commenced, as the party has instructed its members to dispose of all their cellular devices or pagers. Establishing a new and secure method of communication among its combatants along the front lines will require significant time and extensive testing to ensure the reliability of the proposed system before it can be implemented. This situation presents an unprecedented challenge that will impact the party’s organizational and combat effectiveness, compounded by a prevailing public sentiment following the attack that suggests the party is vulnerable to security and intelligence breaches at various levels. The party is indeed in a state of disarray, having recently suffered a significant setback with the targeting of its Chief of Staff, Fouad Shukr. The most critical aspect of this turmoil lies in the inability of its members and fighters to refrain from individual actions, which could lead to dire consequences. It is also noteworthy that during the invasion of Iraq, coalition forces targeted all Iraqi communication networks prior to the assault, leaving the military without high-level commands. The pager attack may represent the initial phase of a severe blow to Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon.
Dr Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
