US President Donald Trump has effectively initiated his second term, showing early signs of continuing his focus on the Middle East, alongside critical issues such as the Ukraine conflict and trade tensions with China. If his previous tenure serves as a guide, the region will remain central to his foreign policy agenda.
During his first term, Trump made unprecedented moves in Middle Eastern diplomacy. He chose Saudi Arabia as the destination for his inaugural international trip, sought to mediate the “Deal of the Century” between Israelis and Palestinians, facilitated Israel’s regional integration, and significantly intensified pressure on Iran. His policy was centred on two pivotal, albeit opposing, objectives: bolstering Tel Aviv’s position while simultaneously countering Tehran’s influence.
However, the Middle East that Trump left at the end of his first term has undergone profound changes. The Syrian regime has collapsed and been replaced by a militant group still officially designated as a terrorist organization. Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon has weakened due to sustained setbacks, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Meanwhile, Hamas has seen its political and military foothold in Gaza nearly disappear.
The Gaza conflict that began on 7 October 2023, under the banner of “Unity of Arenas,” is now approaching its conclusion, with many leaders who instigated the crisis absent and no substantial arenas of conflict remaining. These developments have unexpectedly created opportunities for regional stabilization, such as Lebanon’s recent election of a president after a four-year vacuum. This shift may pave the way for a less confrontational Middle East, providing Trump with a favourable environment to advance the vision he championed during his first term, exemplified by the Abraham Accords. These agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, laying the groundwork for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Trump’s strategic focus includes accelerating Israel’s integration into the Middle East, although he faces challenges in reconciling Saudi Arabia’s demand for progress on Palestinian statehood with Israel’s firm opposition. Saudi Arabia’s stance reflects its broader strategic priorities, which involve balancing its national interests, regional leadership, and commitment to Palestinian sovereignty.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tactic of leveraging conflict with Iran to foster alliances in the Gulf has largely faltered, especially following the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh after the Gaza war. Washington has also recognized the strategic importance of a strong Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s capacity to counter Iran, while simultaneously encouraging Israel to engage in meaningful dialogue with the Palestinians, positions it as an essential player in regional diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia has consistently rejected the idea that supporting Palestinian sovereignty conflicts with its other interests, including fostering relations with Tehran. Its endorsement of a Palestinian state could unite Gulf nations, positioning them as mediators between Iran and Israel, thereby enhancing Saudi Arabia’s standing as a regional power.
The recent hostage exchange deal in Gaza provided Trump with an early political victory, boosting his credibility and creating momentum for tackling other complex issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the Ukraine war.
Despite these opportunities, significant obstacles could impede Trump’s objectives. Netanyahu’s fragile coalition, composed of far-right factions with conflicting agendas, faces substantial internal discord. Moreover, the continuation of conflict serves Netanyahu politically, as a ceasefire would lead to intensified scrutiny of his leadership, including renewed calls for investigations into the events of October 7. This situation could result in his resignation or trigger early elections, disrupting Trump’s broader Middle East strategy.
Netanyahu’s recent advocacy for the annexation of the West Bank and Gaza further complicates matters. During Trump’s first term, Netanyahu sought U.S. approval for annexation but left Washington committed to the two-state framework outlined in the “Deal of the Century.” His inability to translate recent military successes into lasting political gains highlights a lack of strategic foresight, which weakens his government’s position.
Iran represents one of the most intricate challenges facing Trump in his second term. Tehran’s influence spans multiple geopolitical arenas, including the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Ukraine war, and U.S.-China tensions. Any American pressure on Iran risks triggering unintended consequences across these interconnected domains.
Trump’s first term fell short of diminishing Iran’s regional influence, despite withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, reemploying sanctions, and authorizing the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a key architect of Iran’s regional strategy. Nevertheless, Trump now has an opportunity to recalibrate his approach, pursuing a more comprehensive and strategic engagement to address Tehran’s influence and its nuclear ambitions.
The evolving landscape of the Middle East presents both opportunities and challenges for Trump’s second term. His ability to navigate the region’s complexities will be pivotal in determining his legacy. Success would reinforce his reputation as a transformative leader in Middle Eastern diplomacy, while failure could undermine his broader foreign policy objectives, with far-reaching implications for global geopolitics.
Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
