Two months after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, Syria faces the formidable challenge of unifying its fragmented security landscape. A declaration by the new administration in Damascus to dissolve all armed factions, while symbolically important, confronts the reality of powerful independent groups, complex political dynamics, and the legacy of a decade-long conflict.
A Patchwork of Power: The Current State of Syria’s Armed Groups
Syria’s armed landscape comprises a complex web of over 60 factions, each with its own history, allegiances, and agendas. Over half are affiliated with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), a force of at least 80,000 primarily focused on countering the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Other factions operate independently or within smaller alliances, with ideologies ranging from secular to Islamist and funding sources spanning various regional and international actors. This patchwork of power presents a significant obstacle to creating a unified national army.
Damascus Declaration and Its Limitations
The recent conference in Damascus, where the new administration declared the dissolution of all armed factions, aimed to project an image of control and a commitment to building a unified security apparatus. However, the absence of key players, including the SDF, southern factions, and defected Syrian army officers, exposed the limitations of this decree. The complexities surrounding the diverse armed groups, their varying motivations, and the lack of clear mechanisms for disarmament and integration cast doubt on the feasibility of this ambitious goal.
The “National Army” Vision: Challenges of Integration
Transitional President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has articulated a vision for a new “national army” incorporating all former opposition factions. This vision entails a process of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful Islamist group, supposedly taking the lead. However, despite meetings between government officials and various faction leaders, including a meeting between Al-Sharaa and 8th Brigade Commander Ahmed Al-Awda just days after Assad’s fall, concrete progress towards integration remains elusive. The lack of trust between the new administration and many of these groups, coupled with the absence of a clear roadmap for integration, poses significant challenges to realizing this vision.
The Kurdish Conundrum: A Major Obstacle to Unification
The SDF, a crucial player in the fight against ISIS, represents a major stumbling block in the path towards a unified Syrian army. Controlling a significant portion of northeastern Syria, the SDF, with its Kurdish core, insists on maintaining its autonomy, a condition rejected by Damascus. This impasse raises the spectre of renewed conflict, given the SDF’s considerable military strength and the potential for Turkish intervention. The presence of thousands of ISIS prisoners in SDF-held territory adds another layer of complexity to this already volatile situation. Recent talks between SDF commander Mazloum Abdi and Al-Sharaa have yet to yield a breakthrough.
The Dilemma of Foreign Fighters: A Source of Tension and Controversy
The integration of foreign fighters, who joined the Syrian conflict in various capacities, presents another set of challenges. The appointment of non-Syrian nationals to senior military positions has sparked controversy and raised concerns about security risks. International pressure, coupled with reports of abuses by foreign fighters in some areas, complicates their integration into a national army.
The Marginalization of Defected Officers: A Missed Opportunity?
The role of defected Syrian army officers in the new military structure remains ambiguous. While their expertise could be invaluable in building a professional army, concerns persist about their marginalization within the new power structure. Critics point to the appointment of individuals with limited military experience to senior positions, raising questions about the new administration’s commitment to meritocracy and professionalism.
Southern Factions and Their Demands: Negotiating a Path Forward
Factions in southern Syria, including the Russia-backed 8th Brigade in Daraa and Druze militias in Suwayda, have laid down specific conditions for joining a national army. These include the establishment of a truly representative government, a new constitution, and a non-sectarian military. These demands underscore the deep-seated mistrust of centralized authority and the desire for local autonomy, further complicating the task of army unification.
A Future Uncertain: The Long Road to a Unified Military
The path towards a unified Syrian army remains uncertain. The new administration faces a complex array of challenges, from navigating the competing interests of various armed groups to addressing international concerns. The lack of a clear roadmap for disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, coupled with ongoing political and security challenges, suggests that the process of army unification will be long and arduous. The success or failure of this endeavour will have far-reaching consequences for the future of Syria.
