Following President Donald Trump’s successful brokering of a ceasefire in Gaza, global attention now turns to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with speculation on whether he can achieve a diplomatic breakthrough to end the war. Despite controversy over his remarks about relocating Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan—met with strong opposition from Palestinians and Arab nations advocating a two-state solution—this debate has not overshadowed the international focus on his potential role in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, a top global priority.
The ramifications of the Russian-Ukrainian war, one of the most significant geopolitical events in recent decades, have extended far beyond Europe, shaking the global economic system and leaving lasting impacts on political and economic balances worldwide. The unprecedented surge in energy and food prices—resulting from disruptions to oil, gas, and grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the world’s largest producers—has driven millions into poverty and threatened food security, particularly in developing nations and the Middle East. This price spike, reaching record levels not seen in decades, fuelled global inflation above 8% in 2022, increasing living costs and eroding purchasing power, further exacerbating social unrest in many countries.
Politically, the war has deepened divisions among major powers, destabilizing the international system and affecting both the Middle East and Europe. Some regional actors have leveraged the crisis to expand their influence, while others find themselves balancing traditional alliances with new strategic partnerships. In Europe, soaring energy costs have hit industries and small businesses hard, jeopardizing national energy security. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, oil-exporting nations have benefited from rising prices, but the increased cost of goods and services has negatively impacted citizens’ purchasing power.
Amid these challenges, the world eagerly anticipates an end to the war, widely attributed to provocations by the previous U.S. administration under President Biden. Consequently, there is global hope that Trump can broker peace in this conflict, which poses a significant threat to international stability. The war in Ukraine is not merely a regional dispute but a larger geopolitical struggle involving several global powers.
Trump seeks to play a decisive role in ending the war through a comprehensive strategy integrating political, economic, and strategic measures. His approach combines pressure and incentives to bring both sides to the negotiating table, aiming to restore regional and global stability.
Trump’s vision is reflected in the message of his envoy, Keith Kellogg, who recently urged Russia and Ukraine to make mutual concessions for peace. In a Fox News interview, Kellogg noted that Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown willingness to soften his stance, while Russian President Putin must also adjust his position to facilitate negotiations.
Trump’s strategy holds notable strengths that could encourage both leaders to engage in dialogue. By promoting balanced concessions, his plan seeks to establish a framework where both sides feel acknowledged and motivated to negotiate, emphasizing diplomacy as the pathway to lasting peace.
Trump strongly opposes the vast military aid flowing to Kyiv and threatens additional sanctions on Moscow if it refuses to negotiate. He warns Russia of economic collapse should it reject diplomacy, yet also underscores the importance of cooperation with Moscow for global stability. While sanctions have had diminishing effects due to Russia’s resilience and support from China and North Korea, Trump’s firm stance might pressure Putin to consider talks. Simultaneously, he reassures Ukraine that peace through strength would respect its sovereignty without requiring surrender. This blend of incentives and deterrence creates a complex dynamic that could ultimately pave the way for resolution.
Trump asserts that Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war hinges on continued Western support, with US aid alone reaching approximately $108bn since 2022, supplemented by European and allied contributions. He argues that halting these funds and arms could shift Ukraine’s calculations, pushing it toward diplomatic solutions rather than prolonged military engagement.
Additionally, Trump seeks to reshape the Western narrative framing Ukraine as a defender of democratic values against Russian expansion. He highlights political missteps, such as the failure to uphold the Minsk Agreements and Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, suggesting these factors fueled the conflict. This perspective may weaken European support for the war and encourage all parties to consider peaceful alternatives. He also challenges the feasibility of a strategic defeat of Russia, emphasizing that cooperation with Moscow is essential for global stability. Citing Russia’s historical role in European security, Trump questions the effectiveness of costly confrontational policies that, after nearly three years, have failed to yield decisive results.
Trump’s past relationship with Putin, based on dialogue and cooperation on geopolitical matters, informs his approach. He argues that the Biden administration’s escalation—described by some as a “ring of fire” policy—has worsened tensions with Russia and its neighbours in both Europe and Asia. Consequently, Trump aims to de-escalate these conflicts and foster diplomatic engagement with Moscow, which could lead to serious negotiations to end the war.
Moreover, Trump proposes a 20-year ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership—an essential concession to Moscow addressing one of its core demands. His silence on Crimea tacitly acknowledges Russian control, potentially incentivizing Russia to negotiate. At the same time, he reassures Ukraine that his “peace through strength” doctrine does not imply surrender but a balanced settlement preserving its dignity and sovereignty.
Trump also leverages economic factors, opposing the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war efforts. Instead, he advocates for a broader settlement that includes easing sanctions on Russia and committing to Ukraine’s reconstruction. This pragmatic approach could serve as a catalyst for peace, given the war’s damaging effects on the global economy and supply chains.
If Trump succeeds in halting the war, it could mark a fundamental shift in global geopolitics, reducing political and military polarization and steering the world toward cooperative rather than adversarial dynamics. With the war’s widespread impact on energy and the economy, achieving peace would not only offer hope to the affected regions but to humanity as a whole.
Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer
