Israeli media have reported growing unease within Tel Aviv’s defense and security establishment regarding Egypt’s possible acquisition of advanced Chinese J-10C fighter jets, particularly if they are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles. These missiles, known for their extended range of 200 to 300 kilometers, could significantly enhance Egypt’s aerial combat capabilities and shift the regional air power balance.
Concerns Over Egypt’s Expanding Air Power
According to the Israeli defense website Nziv, Egypt’s interest in the J-10C is part of a broader strategy to modernize its air force and diversify its military suppliers beyond traditional Western partners. This move follows Egypt’s successful procurement of French Rafale fighter jets, the Russian Su-35 (though some deliveries remain uncertain due to geopolitical factors), and American F-16s, as well as the MiG-29M.
The report indicates that Egypt may receive the PL-15E variant, which is the export version of the missile with a reduced range of 150 kilometers, compared to the 200-300 kilometers of the standard PL-15 used by the Chinese military. Despite this reduction, even the PL-15E would mark a significant enhancement in Egypt’s air-to-air combat capabilities, as its range far exceeds that of existing missiles in the region.
Moreover, Israeli analysts highlight that the appearance of the J-10CE9001 aircraft at the Zhuhai Air Show suggests that China may already be preparing units for export, potentially including Egypt as a key buyer. If confirmed, this deal would mark a milestone in Egypt’s efforts to strengthen its air force with advanced multi-role fighter jets capable of competing with the latest Western and Russian aircraft.
Israeli Fears Over the PL-15 Missile
Israeli security concerns are not solely focused on Egypt’s potential acquisition of the J-10C, but rather on the integration of the PL-15 missile into the Egyptian Air Force. This missile, equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, is designed for beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat and could allow Egyptian fighter jets to engage enemy aircraft from a significantly greater distance than ever before.
For years, Israel has relied on maintaining air superiority in the region, largely due to its access to advanced American-made weaponry, including F-35 stealth fighters and sophisticated air defense systems. However, the introduction of the PL-15 missile to Egypt’s arsenal could challenge Israel’s dominance in aerial engagements, especially since it outperforms the American AIM-120 AMRAAM, which has a shorter effective range.
U.S. and European Reluctance to Supply Egypt with Long-Range Missiles
The report also noted that Washington and Paris have historically refrained from providing Egypt with long-range air-to-air missiles due to Israeli concerns over maintaining its qualitative military edge (QME). In past arms deals, Egypt has been supplied with French MICA and American AIM-7 Sparrow missiles, both of which have considerably shorter ranges than the PL-15.
Israeli defense officials have previously lobbied against supplying Egypt with weapons that could challenge Israeli air superiority. In the case of the Su-35, the U.S. exerted significant diplomatic pressure to prevent Russia from delivering the aircraft to Egypt. A similar stance could be taken regarding the J-10C deal, though China’s increasing military cooperation with Egypt may limit Washington’s ability to influence the transaction.
Regional Implications and Strategic Shifts
While there has been no official confirmation from Cairo regarding the purchase of the J-10C, the growing speculation has already triggered discussions within Israeli defense circles about the long-term implications. If Egypt integrates these fighter jets into its air force, it could alter the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, particularly in scenarios involving air superiority conflicts.
Analysts suggest that the potential acquisition of the J-10C and PL-15 missiles reflects Egypt’s broader strategy of military diversification. This strategy aims to reduce reliance on Western suppliers, increase strategic autonomy, and enhance deterrence capabilities amid evolving regional security dynamics.
For Israel, any change in the air power equation is viewed with caution. The Israeli Air Force continues to upgrade its fleet with F-35I Adir stealth fighters and F-15EX aircraft to maintain its aerial dominance. However, Egypt’s increasing access to cutting-edge missile technology could prompt Israel to accelerate its advancements in countermeasures and air combat tactics.
As military procurement trends evolve, the coming months may reveal more details about Egypt’s defense plans and whether its potential acquisition of the J-10C will indeed materialize. If confirmed, the move is likely to prompt diplomatic discussions between Egypt, China, Israel, and Western powers regarding the shifting balance of military power in the region.
