Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 and his renewed commitment to “America First” policies, his most controversial decision has been the sweeping tariffs, sparking a new wave of trade protectionism that pits the United States directly against its traditional allies. The consequences of this approach extend far beyond the American economy, reshaping Washington’s role on the global stage and creating a power vacuum that China and Russia are eager to fill. The pressing question now is: Can these two nations replace the United States in leading international organizations and shaping global rules?
China, for its part, possesses the economic tools necessary to reshape the global landscape. Through its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested vast sums into infrastructure projects across the developing world, offering viable alternatives to Western-led financial institutions. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, founded by China with an initial capital exceeding $100bn, now stands as a formidable competitor to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, amplifying Beijing’s influence over global economic policy. Simultaneously, China is promoting the yuan as an international reserve currency, having signed currency swap agreements worth over $300bn with more than 40 countries—an explicit effort to reduce global dependence on the US dollar.
China’s ambitions extend beyond economics. Washington’s retreat from global climate leadership, notably its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, provided Beijing with the perfect opportunity to step into the role of global environmental leader. With an annual $15bn investment in renewable energy and its status as the world’s leading producer of solar panels, China has seized the moment to present itself as a responsible global power.
Russia, in contrast, lacks China’s economic clout but has skilfully expanded its global influence through military and diplomatic efforts. The US disengagement from key regions such as the Middle East and Africa has allowed Moscow to assert itself, whether through military intervention in Syria or strategic partnerships across Africa. Russia’s arms exports, which surpassed $13bn in 2021, have cemented its status as the world’s second-largest weapons supplier, bolstering its alliances and reinforcing its geopolitical leverage.
Beyond traditional military power, Russia has also focused on cybersecurity and digital infrastructure, recognizing the growing importance of the technological battlefield in global competition. As digital security challenges grow, Moscow’s strategic engagement in this domain has bolstered its role in shaping global cybersecurity standards and capabilities.
Yet, despite China and Russia’s ambitions, the idea that they can fully replace the United States as the preeminent global power remains uncertain. Washington still wields considerable influence within international institutions. Its financial commitments to the United Nations remain significant, ensuring its continued leverage over key global decisions. Moreover, although the US withdrawal from major trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership has opened doors for China, America’s economic dominance remains formidable.
Furthermore, US allies have not accepted this shifting dynamic without resistance. The European Union is actively working to reduce its reliance on Washington but has yet to fundamentally diverge from its longstanding alliance with the US. France and Germany are strengthening European military capabilities while recognizing that a diminished American security presence could pose existential risks to Europe’s stability. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan and India are exploring alternative alliances to counter China’s growing influence, while Middle Eastern nations, traditionally dependent on US military protection, are diversifying their strategic partnerships by engaging more closely with both Beijing and Moscow.
In the realm of technology, where competition between major powers is fiercest, the battle for dominance is particularly complex. China is advancing rapidly in artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and digital finance, positioning itself as a leader in the global digital economy. However, the United States remains at the forefront of technological innovation, maintaining a commanding lead in cutting-edge research and development.
Space exploration has also emerged as a new arena for geopolitical rivalry. China and Russia are significantly increasing their investments in space programs, with Beijing allocating over $11bn to its space ambitions in 2021, while Moscow strengthens its collaboration with China to counterbalance American dominance in this frontier.
These developments raise a fundamental question: Are we witnessing a permanent restructuring of global power, or is this simply a temporary phase driven by an isolationist US administration? Historically, the United States has shown a remarkable ability to recalibrate and reclaim its leadership position following periods of retrenchment. However, in an era of accelerating geopolitical realignment, reclaiming that role may prove more challenging than ever before. The real question may not be whether China and Russia can fill the void left by the United States, but whether Washington itself is willing—and able—to reclaim the leadership it has willingly ceded.
Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer
