All eyes are now on Ankara, as people across the region and beyond await the visit of US President Donald Trump to Türkiye this May — a trip recently announced by the White House. The anticipated visit has reignited speculation about the future of Turkish-American relations at a time when the alliance between the two countries is experiencing one of its most turbulent phases in decades. What was once a strategic partnership has, over the years, oscillated between open hostility and cautious rapprochement. This uneasy dynamic continues to reverberate throughout the geopolitical balance in both the Middle East and Europe. The United States, which traditionally regarded Ankara as an indispensable NATO ally and a key player in regional security, now appears to be reassessing Türkiye’s position within its broader strategic framework. A host of transformations in Ankara’s regional and international conduct have compelled Washington to reconsider the value and risks of this alliance.
A recent bill introduced in the US Congress by a bipartisan group of legislators, calling for Türkiye to be reclassified from a European nation to a Middle Eastern country in the State Department’s records, is far more than a mere bureaucratic measure. It stands as a political message — unambiguous and revealing — signaling how the American political establishment currently perceives President Erdoğan’s Türkiye. The move suggests that Washington increasingly views Ankara as a state drifting away from the Western bloc and aligning itself more closely with Russia, China, Iran, and Hamas, in direct conflict with US security and strategic interests.
The language used by representatives Brad Schneider and Gus Bilirakis was unusually blunt. In their description, Türkiye today “harbors Hamas operatives, supports Russia’s war machine, and undermines NATO unity while simultaneously demanding the privileges of a Western ally.” It seems Washington is no longer willing to turn a blind eye to Erdoğan’s disruptive foreign policy, especially as tensions continue to escalate over sensitive issues like Ankara’s acquisition of Russian defense systems, its rapprochement with Tehran, and its equivocal stance on the war in Ukraine.
Yet Erdoğan remains a master of political balancing acts. While he sometimes antagonizes the West, he is also quick to court it when the situation demands. The recent statements made by Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek during his visit to Washington made this clear. Şimşek declared his country’s intention to deepen cooperation with the United States across multiple sectors: defense, space technology, artificial intelligence, and energy. Erdoğan knows full well that Türkiye’s regional status remains intricately tied to its relationship with Washington, and that, despite recurring disputes, pragmatism tends to prevail in the end.
What is particularly notable is that this shifting relationship is playing out against the backdrop of growing signs of rapprochement between Erdoğan and Trump. The US president has recently expressed conspicuous warmth towards Erdoğan, describing him as a “strong and smart leader” and highlighting Türkiye’s pivotal role in shaping the balance of power in Syria. Should Trump indeed decide to include Türkiye in his upcoming Middle East tour this May, it would be a telling indicator of a recalibration in Turkish-American relations.
This rapprochement, however, will not come without conditions. The US demands clear assurances from Ankara that Syria will not be allowed to become a safe haven for extremist groups, that Iranian influence in the region will be contained, and that Türkiye’s understandings with Moscow will not contradict Israeli interests. At the heart of this intricate equation lies the Gaza file.
In light of the ongoing war on Gaza and Israel’s relentless military campaign, it has become increasingly evident that Erdoğan sees Gaza as a crucial card in enhancing Türkiye’s regional leverage — whether through his country’s ties with Hamas or through his vociferous statements in support of the Palestinian cause. While Trump’s populist rhetoric often leans heavily in Israel’s favor, his administration recognizes the importance of maintaining open channels with Ankara to manage tensions surrounding this sensitive issue. Türkiye’s unique relationship with Hamas and its ability to exert influence on the Palestinian scene make it a factor that cannot be excluded from any future arrangements in the Gaza Strip.
This context helps explain the apparent contradictions between the American Congress and the White House. While lawmakers adopt a confrontational tone toward Türkiye, the executive branch, particularly under Trump, seeks to keep avenues of dialogue open, relying on Erdoğan’s pragmatism. Trump understands that such a rapprochement could serve multiple US interests: applying pressure on Iran and Russia in the Syrian theater, securing economic deals in defense and energy with Ankara, and establishing a discreet channel to Hamas that could prove useful in future negotiations over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or in managing the devastating consequences of the war in Gaza.
Türkiye’s evolving relationship with the United States has thus become a microcosm of the broader strategic disarray engulfing the Middle East in 2025. There are no stable alliances, no permanent hostilities — only transient deals, shifting interests, and calculations that change with every new American administration. What remains certain is that Erdoğan, the consummate political tactician, knows Washington will ultimately be reluctant to sever ties with Ankara completely. Türkiye is far from an ordinary Middle Eastern country; it is a regional crossroads, a complex political actor, and a key to resolving a host of regional crises — from Syria to Ukraine, from Gaza to energy disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.
As Israel and Greece watch this potential rapprochement with growing concern, and Moscow and Tehran monitor developments with caution, all eyes now turn to the coming month of May. Will Trump’s anticipated visit to Türkiye mark a genuine turning point in relations between the two nations, or merely another episode in a long history of rivalry and transactional diplomacy? The likeliest scenario is that Trump will not grant Erdoğan everything he desires, nor will he forgo the strategic opportunity of leveraging Türkiye’s role to advance his own regional agenda. In this ongoing game of carrot and stick, Turkish-American relations remain a reflection of the Middle East’s enduring volatility.
Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer
