CAIRO: Economist and author Jeffrey Sachs’ diagnosis for many of the modern world’s economic, political and social challenges may not come as much of a surprise in this congested city: The earth is very, very crowded, and it is getting more so every day.
As a densely populated, ecologically stressed and fast-growing country with high unemployment, the Egyptian government should act to stabilize population growth by encouraging a “voluntary reduction in fertility rates, Sachs told Daily News Egypt following a lecture at the American University in Cairo on Tuesday evening.
“It’s a wonderful country. I love Egypt and I want to see it prosper, he said. “And I think that Egypt would be very, very well served by a swift and successful reduction in fertility rates.
Contraceptives should be “freely available here and people should be educated on their safe use, Sachs said. “Of course, everything should be voluntary, he added.
While previous generations have grappled with World Wars, the Great Depression and the Cold War, the biggest challenge now is “surviving on a crowded planet, Sachs said during his lecture.
In his lecture, Sachs outlined four major factors driving the modern economy. First, the world has begun to shift away from a centuries-old system of European and North American dominance into a “much more multi-polar world, he said. Asia already dominates the world in terms of population, and should therefore increasingly become the center of politics, finance and technology, he said.
Second, Sachs said, the amount of available land and resources is shrinking.
Academics have advanced the theory that the huge population growth that comes with rising living standards will inevitably strain our global systems, Sachs said.
“We don’t know yet whether that’s nonsense, he said. “What seems unarguable. is that our current global trajectory is literally unsustainable.
Third, people are moving increasingly from the country to the city, Sachs said. About half of the world’s people now live in cities, breeding a new, widespread brand of urban poverty, as seen in the sprawling slums of many African and Asian cities. “We are now for the first time in human history in an urban world, Sachs said.
The fourth factor, in Sachs’ view, is the instability of the world’s political and economic systems. The number of poor is rising, major banks are imploding and the United States government has ground to a near-halt, despite the election of Barack Obama, he said.
Many of these changes can be linked to the shift that came with the collapse of the European colonial system following World War II, Sachs said.
The gap in quality of life between the “the West and the rest widened dramatically during the industrial age, Sachs said. But since the 40s, technology has become more widely available, literacy has spread and countries’ have gained the ability to dictate their own economic policies, allowing for a period of “catch-up to take place.
Sachs used a chart of the world’s population over the past two millennia to illustrate the swift rise in the number of people on earth since the European industrial revolution, a central theme of his speech. A nearly flat line continued from the start of the first century until the mid-19th century, representing a rise from about 500 million people to about 750 million, Sachs said. At this point, the population began a period of “super exponential growth culminating in about 6.7 billion people today, he said.
The number of people in Egypt is expected to grow from about 80 million today to 120 million by 2050 according to statistics provided by the Population Division of the United Nations. Last year, President Hosni Mubarak said that the population could double to 160 million by that time if birth rates rise.
“People [won’t be] well provisioned and well tended-to if the numbers reach those levels, Sachs said. “The ecological stress is already profound.
While getting along on a global scale has not historically been our strongest trait as a species, cooperation on an unprecedented scale is the only way to avert catastrophe, Sachs said
“We tend to like our kith and kin, but we’re not so sure about the next village, the next group, the next country, or the next part of the world, he said. “Now we don’t have the luxury to continue in the traditional mode.
There is not “unfathomable mystery about how to deal with modern problems such as climate change, Sachs said. For instance, a German firm recently estimated that the bulk of the world’s energy could be supplied by the use of solar panels in just a fraction of the Algerian Sahara. ­
“We have no shortage of energy in the world, Sachs said. “But we do have to remake our technological systems – and a place like Egypt, when you look at the solar installation maps, is terrifically endowed with sunshine.
This, he said, could make this country a major source of solar energy. “The deserts are going to bloom with mirrors, he said.
The great paradox of our age, Sachs said, is that while there is more wealth available than at any other stage in human history, the number of desperately poor is growing.
The reason this gap persists is not a systemic or material hurdle, Sachs said, but a mental one. For instance, he said, the sum spent on the United States military dwarfs the estimated amount needed to provide basic healthcare for most of the world’s poor.
“We have spent more money in Iraq than all the aid the whole world has ever spent, total, cumulatively, on aid for Africa, he said.
As for the financial havoc recently wrought on Wall Street? “I can’t even believe the numbers, Sachs said. “As a development economist, I beg for millions of dollars. I see billions as the Holy Grail. Then I watched trillions go down the drain.
