Hunch time

Alaa Abdel-Ghani
5 Min Read

It’s come down to Europe vs. Europe, former vs. former champion, blue vs. blue. France s Les Bleus vs. the Italian Azzurri. The stage is set for a classic. Tomorrow witnesses the biggest football match in four years. Any questions?

History says Italy will win. The French will be making just their second ever appearance in a World Cup final, the other being their famous victory at home over Brazil in 1998. Italy will be trying for their fourth title; this will be their sixth final.

But if you want France to come out on top, then wait. Historical overview should not end there. It is the head-to-head challenges of the good old days that matter as much as the generalities, if not more. Germany had not lost any of its previous 14 games in Dortmund, but it also never before had beaten Italy at a World Cup tournament. That latter tradition proved to be the stronger.

An attempt by Portugal to alter fate went begging. The Portuguese last beat France 31 years ago, in 1975, and never in a World Cup. That custom, too, marches on.

And for the most relevant toe-to-toe, France beat Italy on penalties in the quarter-finals of World Cup 1998 and rallied to defeat Italy again in Euro 2000.

There’s more than just a bit of déjà vu involving France. France is replicating its run in the 2000 European Championship when it beat Portugal in the semi-finals to set up the final against Italy.

So the picture is clear. To go by history, Italy will win and so too will France.

What can be said in equally unambiguous terms is that both teams deserve to be where they are right now. Without exception, the players of both teams all possess a sublime first touch, can find a team-mate with a simple pass, find themselves the space to receive a pass, build up sensible forward moves that conclude successfully and thwart the opposition sharing similar ambitions. Sounds easy, so why couldn’t 30 other teams do it?

France is the sentimental favorite for people who are past their prime – make that their life expectancy. The team’s average age is 30, yet they have been running themselves ragged in getting past Spain and especially Brazil. They certainly peaked at the proper time. It was not so long ago that this team, now in the final of the world’s biggest football occasion, couldn’t beat Switzerland or South Korea.

His farewell party put on hold yet again, the Zinedine Zidane story is truly compelling. The talisman is perhaps showing less than magical form but his inspiration is compensation enough.

Italy is a team which waits and waits. They can send you to sleep and then – pow – score two goal in the last two minutes.

Italy still hasn t allowed an opponent a goal, all the more impressive considering they no longer play their infamous catenaccio tactics anymore. Until a few years ago, the entire team would retreat back in front of their goal and hope to score only on counterattacks. Now they go upfield in force. At one point late against Germany, when it was wise to do otherwise, they had four strikers on the field.

Their domestic league match-fixing scandal could easily have sapped them of their resolve. Every Italian team member plays club ball at home and 13 of the 23 play for the four Serie A teams under investigation and which might be ultimately demoted.

But great teams make the ascent when it’s time. Which brings us to the moral of this story: It’s not how you start a World Cup, it’s how you end it.

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