Israel has been dragged into the Nile basin controversy by portions of the Egyptian media and political opposition on totally baseless grounds. This might be entertaining, if Israel did not have so many real and serious international problems to deal with. But the Israel angle is nevertheless instructive, if only to note just how profoundly an Israeli pre-peace anti-Egyptian strategy remains imprinted on the psyche of at least some Egyptians.
The current, groundless allegations purport to see an Israeli hand in an alleged conspiracy hatched by Ethiopia and other Nile Basin countries to deny Egypt Nile waters that it currently exploits under international treaty, and use them for their own benefit. The visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda in September 2009 is cited as proof that Israel is conniving with these countries against Egypt. Lieberman did nothing of the kind in Africa; he promoted bilateral commerce and encouraged an anti-Iran stand that could only please Egypt. He offered Israeli aid to Africa mainly in order for Israel to satisfy the demands of the OECD, of which it recently became a member.
But Lieberman had in the past threatened to respond to Egyptian aggression by attacking the Aswan Dam. He also once insulted President Hosni Mobarak. Hence he is understandably suspect. In fact, Lieberman visited Africa (the first high-level Israeli visit there in 20 years) and, earlier, South America, primarily because he is not a desired guest in most other parts of the world — but that is a different story.
Israel is accused by the opposition press in Egypt of having offered to fund agricultural projects and dam-building in African countries at the sources of the Nile with the objective of either punishing Egypt for taking an anti-Israel stand on nuclear matters or, alternatively, pressuring Egypt to share Nile waters with Israel by means of a pipeline across Sinai to the Negev. These allegations conveniently ignore the fact that Israel and Egypt have moved closer strategically in recent years in view of the perception of a shared threat by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. And Israel gave up the dream of drinking Nile water some 30 years ago, shortly after President Anwar Sadat himself proposed the idea. Indeed, with half its drinking water soon to be produced by desalination, Israel can offer neighboring Mediterranean and Red Sea coastal countries technologies for exploiting their ample salt water resources to produce potable water.
The real source of the allegations by the Egyptian opposition regarding Israel, Africa and the Nile goes back even more than 30 years, to the 1950s and ’60s. Then, Egypt under President Gamal Abdel Nasser led the Arab world in targeting Israel and aggressively projecting Egyptian power. Israel responded with its "Periphery Doctrine" of alliances with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia to counter threats from Egypt, Syria and Iraq. The doctrine helped persuade the Arab world that it would have to accommodate Israel: witness Sadat’s dramatic peace initiative of 1977. Since then, at least as far as Egypt is concerned, Israel’s periphery doctrine has been defunct. Not only have countries like Iran and now Turkey turned against Israel; they have turned against Egypt as well. Israel, for obvious reasons, prefers even a cold peace with Cairo to scheming with Ethiopia.
But when the Egyptian opposition press conjures up the periphery doctrine after all these years to support its false allegations of Israeli perfidy, it also, almost accidentally, spotlights a more current and troubling strategic trend. Forty and 50 years ago, Israel sought to outflank a strong and regionally influential Egypt by linking up with non-Arab countries that shared Jerusalem’s fear of Arab aggression. Today, with the entire Arab state system ailing and seemingly incapable of standing up to militant Islam, Egypt appears to have lost much of its leadership image virtually everywhere, including Africa.
How else can we explain the readiness of Nile basin states like Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo to draw up an agreement that could conceivably threaten Egypt and Sudan’s share of Nile waters, without even consulting Cairo? Forty years ago, Israel would have been pleased. Today, it should be worried.
Yossi Alpher is coeditor of the bitterlemons family of internet publications. He is former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org
