CAIRO: While some see President Hosni Mubarak’s recent busy schedule a way to counter rumors about his health, his meetings with regional and international leaders also sheds light on the direction of Egypt’s foreign policy, experts argue.
Following a decision to open the Rafah border crossing – the only one to Gaza that bypasses Israel – Mubarak met with several leaders and heads of state, both in Egypt and abroad.
The most notable of which were meetings with Algerian and Qatari leaders – two countries whose relations with Egypt had soured recently.
During a mini-Arab summit in Libya earlier last month, Mubarak met with Qatar’s Khalifa Al-Thani. Shortly after, the president traveled to Algeria to offer condolences to President Abdelazziz Bouteflika for the death of his brother.
Both meetings were hailed as a step towards restoring strained relations.
"Despite the difference in views regarding Arab and Mediterranean issues and the negative effects this may have on relations, Egypt never sacrifices the full relationship on the official level but waits for the right moment to revive them," said Hassan Abu Taleb, international relations specialist at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Between the two visits, Mubarak met in Cairo the Iraqi vice-president, Adel Abdel Mahdy, and Masoud Barzani, president of Kurdistan province. This led to the announcement of the opening of two new Egyptian consulates in Arbil and Basra, and a planned increase of Egyptian investments in Iraq.
He also hosted King Abdallah Abdel Aziz of Saudi Arabia for talks regarding the situation in Lebanon among other regional issues.
Arab feuds
Abdallah Al-Asha’al, former assistant to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and a political expert, described this diplomatic activity as an opportunity for Mubarak to respond to those skeptical about his health and ability to rule, and to send a message to the US that he is still a strong ally in the region.
"One can’t expect a unified Arab stance based on such reconciliations; for example, the visit to Algeria was meant to restore Algerian gas imports to Egypt and to neutralize Algeria in case of military action against Iran," Al-Asha’al told Daily News Egypt.
Algerian Gas exports to Egypt stopped earlier this year on claims by Algerian officials that Egypt has failed to pay its debt for imported gas which was refuted by Egyptian officials.
However, no official report said that the two leaders had Iran on their meeting’s agenda.
As for Qatar, the rift with Egypt that occurred during the Gaza raids when both countries tried to undermine the other’s efforts in resolving the crisis, he explained, can’t be bridged in one meeting. The feud, Al-Asha’al argued, runs deeper than that.
According to Al-Asha’al, the Middle East is divided between those working for Arab interests [Qatar] and those working against them [Egypt].
"Egyptian foreign policy puts its interests with the USA [anti-Arab] as a top priority although they may not conform to its own interests; any movement should be seen in this context," he said.
Others believe that these differences are one way Egypt demonstrates its regional weight.
"Egypt has a belief that it still has a margin of influence on the politics of the region," Abu Taleb said.
"Sometimes it demonstrates this by taking what seem to be absurd decisions, spoiling certain efforts or adopting a stance that it believes serves its interest; although it might be contradictory to the norm," he added.
However, there is a strategic dimension, according to Abu Taleb, as Egypt heads towards the Gulf in fears of developments in the Iranian nuclear file that may lead to military actions in the region while Qatar seeks support from Arab countries in case of a military strike on Iran.
But this isn’t the case all the time as Arab-Arab relations aren’t always governed by national interests, argues Abu Taleb.
"There is always an emotional dimension as the personal relationship between Arab leaders has a direct effect on decision-making," he said.
Analysts always tied intimate relations between Egypt and KSA or Libya to friendship between Mubarak and King Abdullah and Moammar Qaddafi, as opposed to the strained relations with Syria.
Palestinian – Israeli conflict
On President Mubarak’s agenda were also meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and US Mideast envoy George Mitchell to push for direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.
Analysts, however, are divided if such Egyptian efforts are helpful or a response to regional pressure to serve the agendas of other countries.
"The opening of the Rafah crossing came as a procedure to save Egypt’s face from the pressure created by Turkish policies and to relieve pressure from the Israeli side," Al-Asha’al said.
"Also, direct negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel means a dead-end which only helps Israel’s interest," he added
However, Abu Taleb argues that such talks may have another objective.
"When there is no breakthrough in negotiations, Egypt seeks to create political momentum to avoid tension," he said.
"The Turkish role is limited; they hoped for US support during the Flotilla crisis but they didn’t get it, Egypt offered to carry the aid by land but they refused as part of limiting the Egyptian role in the region," Abu Taleb added.
Since the Flotilla crisis, the popularity of Turkish political leaders explicitly attacking Israel has been on the rise among Arab masses amidst Turkish efforts to mediate between conflicting Palestinian factions and increase pressure on Israel.
Mubarak hosted Turkish President Abdallah Gul who witnessed the graduation ceremony of the military academy students followed by talks on regional issues which both leaders described as positive.
Egypt continues to play the top role in the Palestinian case, argues Abu Taleb, “since no other regional power had the acceptance of all sides (Hamas, Fatah, Israel) to intermediate, except Egypt."
According to Abu Taleb, despite Israeli pressure on Egypt to close the Rafah crossing, Egyptian authorities insist on keeping it open as they believe that this will be in the interest of the country’s national security.
"Egyptian authorities took both decisions regarding the Rafah crossing based on the circumstances, political inputs and Egyptian interests at the time," he said.
"Egypt responded to the mounting Turkish pressure by opening a dialogue channel with Kurds and opening the first ever consulate there; encouraging, however, separation and division in the Iraqi political scene," Al-Asha’al said
However, Abu Taleb says that by talking to Kurds as well as hosting various Lebanese factions Egyptian diplomacy showed openness to talk to all streams in support of the interests of these countries.
"The notion of a unified Arab stance doesn’t exist anymore; all I hope is that Egyptian diplomacy serves the Egyptian agenda rather than others’," Al-Asha’al said.
