By Tamim Elyan
CAIRO: Experts tipped the National Democratic Party (NDP) to win a majority of seats in the next parliament, and added that other opposition parties would have a higher representation as opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB).
“The NDP is expected to constitute the largest bloc as independents are expected to join the mainstream bloc in the parliament; while opposition parties will have better representation [than the] MB,” said Abdel Moneim Saeed, political analyst and chairman of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
“In 2005, the success of the MB swept opposition parties; however, with the return of Al-Wafd after the change in its leadership, young people have been flocking to the party. And if they have had more time, they could have achieved better results than what they can now,” Saeed added.
The resurrection of political parties, as described by Gamal Abdel Gawad, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, saw the NDP developing an ideology and engaging with the MB in political debate for the first time.
“Egypt has been going through a process of re-politicization in which the media opened up and there have been new ways of expression. Politics is coming back to the country and the current elections is a reflection of that,” he said during a roundtable discussion with reporters at the center’s headquarters titled “Egypt on the eve of 2010 Parliamentary Elections.”
“The public should restore confidence in public institutions and the role of elections in governance because if they don’t, it will be a major challenge facing Egypt,” Abdel Gawad said.
Saeed also expected an increase in the turnout of voters to reach 35 percent of the total registered voters.
“This year there are 40,000 voting boxes compared to 32,000 in 2005, as well as more voting stations that can accommodate more voters,” he said.
According to Saeed, low turnout has been a part of Egyptian voters’ culture; since 1924 turnout has never exceeded 40 percent except in 1950 when it reached 60 percent due to certain political circumstances.
“The number of Christian candidates this year may trigger higher turnout from the Coptic population,” Abdel Gawad predicted.
The NDP fielded 10 Coptic candidates, Al-Wafd fielded 14 and Tagammu fielded 11.
Both experts said that current disputes over disqualified candidates between courts and the Supreme Electoral Commission (SEC) are legal rather than political.
“The SEC is a new organ in the electoral process and it is natural that its decisions may conflict with court rulings and vice versa and will take more than one elections for the system to work in harmony,” Saeed said.
“The disputes are in 25 constituencies only and many NDP candidates have been affected by it; however, only the Supreme Administrative Court will [determine] whether a redo of the elections will be done later,” Abdel Gawad said.
Although neither analyst excluded the possibility of violence at the ballots, they said it would not affect the outcome of the elections.
“Violence mostly happens in rural areas between families and tribes not necessarily between political parties and individual candidates,” Abdel Gawad said.
“It is part of the culture of Egyptian elections and a demonstration of the dynamism of the process here,” Saeed said.
