By Troy Carter
On Feb. 11 Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s Vice President and former intelligence chief, delivered a speech on state television. “In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of the president of the republic and had charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody.”
An indication that the military, led by Field Marshall Tantawi, had carried out a military coup? Whether Suleiman has a place in the new power structure is up in the air but based on his reputation as a Mubarak hack, CIA collaborator, and torturous intelligence chief its not likely.
Mubarak’s stepping down is extra-constitutional and in effect returns Egypt to the 1952 model of government in which the state is ruled by the high offices of the military. How much of the power the military shares with the civilian reform movement is the key question.
The celebrations and the surreal euphoria masking the seriousness of the situation will end quickly. Elections are already at the front of most minds. The US is keenly watching the developments and President Obama has already expressed his happiness over developments. It has a vested interest in the Egypt/Israel peace treaty but balances that with the need for Egypt to have a genuinely pluralistic political system.
The Egyptian military has pledged to hold elections in September. If they are held, the military will need to have a party running that will represent its interests and be able to ward off threats to its position. While the Muslim Brotherhood has been held up as the boogeyman over and over it could be one of those forces the military seeks to contain in the new democracy. It may even be that the military uses the National Democratic Party, despite its connection to Mubarak, as the tool for containment and continued regime power.
Continuity in government services during the transitional period is now the responsibility of the military and it may retain parts of the NDP to manage this. The military’s hold on power while creating a democratic government is an enormous challenge. Add to the list of problems the constitution, which has been scrapped in the coup. To many in Cairo the battle with Mubarak was the entire war. The plethora of political details and propaganda rich environment is allowing this to be the military coup that wasn’t.
