By Marwa Al-A’asar
CAIRO: Before heading to polling stations for the referendum, Egyptians are mulling the different scenarios for an outcome of a yes or no majority on the proposed constitutional amendments.
In case citizens cast a unanimous yes, amended Article 189 allows for a new constitution to be drafted, replacing the current one created in 1971.
However, opinions differ on whether the article obliges the president, Shoura Council and People’s Assembly — to be elected later this year — to nominate a 100-member constituent assembly within six months to draft a new constitution. This assembly will set out to formulate a new constitution within another six months to be put forward in a referendum.
Voters will cast their votes on all articles collectively rather than individually.
Saturday’s referendum will be on amendments to Articles 75, 76, 77, 88, 93, 139 and 148, the cancellation of Article 179, the insertion of a paragraph in Article 189 and the addition of two items.
Most of the suggested articles have to do with legislative and presidential elections and parliamentary and presidential jurisdictions.
The looming question is what happens if voters unanimously reject the amendments?
“We will return to point zero and [undergo] a state of confusion,” Cairo University constitutional law professor Raafat Fouda told Daily News Egypt, saying that he is against the proposed amendments himself.
“In this case, a presidential council approved by the people [may be] assigned to [rule the country]…and appoint a temporary coalition government or keep the current one,” Fouda added.
According to Fouda, the government and the council will afterwards hold parliamentary and presidential elections — a situation which he said will not cause a constitutional vacuum.
“Some countries don’t have a constitution in the first place like England and Israel,” he argued.
Nabil Abdel-Fatah, director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, predicts a different scenario.
“If voters say no, the military [may] form a transitional council that involves four civilians and one [high-ranking] army officer,” Abdel-Fatah told DNE.
This council, he added, will set a temporary constitution of 15 to 20 articles until a new one is drafted following elections.
Another analyst, Amr Hashim, considers the rejection as having two aspects, a legal and a political one.
“If voters say no, then [most probably] the old constitution will [legally] be reactivated,” said Hashim, a senior researcher at Al-Ahram Center.
The political aspect, meanwhile, implies peoples’ choice not to have the constitution amended, Hashim told DNE.
Yehia El-Gamal, constitutional law expert and deputy prime minister, said in a recent television interview that if the amendments were rejected by voters, there would be a “declaration that sets general constitutional principles.”
“This constitutional declaration will rule the coming phase until a new constitution is prepared,” El-Gamal said, adding that parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in accordance with the constitutional declaration.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces suspended the constitution on Feb. 13 after assuming power when ousted president Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Feb. 11.
A few days later the army formed a committee of legal experts to amend the constitution.
On Feb. 27, the committee recommended easing restrictions on who can run for president as well as imposing presidential term limits, two key demands frequently called for by politicians, opposition groups and civil society yet long ignored by Mubarak.
Legal experts suggested lifting restrictions on who can run as well as opening the door for independents and small opposition groups to field candidates. The presidency is limited to two four-year terms.
Proposed Article 76 set a minimum age of 40 for presidential candidates.
Candidates are eligible to run if they collect 30,000 signatures from at least 15 governorates in Egypt, with a minimum of 1,000 supporters in each, if they can get recommendations from 30 members of parliament, or if their party has at least one seat in parliament.
The president must appoint a vice president within 60 days after taking office.
Amendments include allowing full judicial supervision of the electoral process, from preparing rosters to declaring results — which practically denies the ministry of interior oversight.
Another article proposed that the president has to seek unanimous approval from the People’s Assembly to impose a state of emergency in the country.
A state of emergency can only be active for a maximum of six months and can only be extended through a public referendum. –Additional reporting by Yara Enany and AP
