By Sammy Ketz / AFP
BAGHDAD: Hailed as the dawn of democracy in the Middle East, the Arab Spring has boosted the Muslim Brotherhood, which has emerged as the major political force in most countries swept by the upheaval.
And while they stand a good chance of winning elections due to feeble competition, notably in Egypt and Tunisia, the Brotherhood are expected to seek power-sharing deals, at least initially.
“Though the Muslim Brotherhood was not at centre stage during the protest movements, it is now an important part of the political spectrum in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and elsewhere,” said Francois Burgat, an expert on Islamic politics.
“It is not inconceivable that they will actually win the majority. However, both in Tunisia and Egypt, they do not currently intend to present official candidates for the presidency of the republic,” said Burgat, author of “Islam in the era of Al-Qaeda.”
Politically the Muslim Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928 by the Egyptian Hassan al-Banna, has been the most influential Islamic movement in the Arab world.
They stick to their motto of “God is our goal/the Prophet Mohammed is our leader/the Quran is our law,” but now also espouse democracy.
Severely repressed until the popular protest movements ousted Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, the Brotherhood have now emerged as key players.
In Egypt, the Brotherhood’s support for a constitutional referendum proposed by the military contributed to the massive 77 percent victory by which it passed.
The secular movements, which had called for a rejection of the referendum on constitutional amendments, found themselves on the losing end.
Better organized than their competitors, the Brotherhood founded the “Freedom and Justice” party, and for the Autumn elections plans to field candidates in only half of the constituencies, in an effort to avoid looking like a hegemony.
They also have announced they will not front a candidate in presidential polls.
Analysts say the movement could dominate the political scene through alliances, and gain the upper hand in introducing their ideas into a revised constitution.
But among the young, who challenge the conservative ideas of their elders, the movement has a weaker power base.
In Tunisia, the Islamic Ennahda (Renaissance) party has adopted the same tactics.
Its leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, who returned from 20 years in exile, told AFP in an interview that a government without Ennahda would be “very weak,” adding that his movement was interested in “power sharing.”
He also said that his party, which emerged as the most popular in an opinion poll, was the biggest.
Many who intend to vote in the October 23 election favor Ennahda, which also possesses a large network and significant financial resources.
“In the short term if other political parties remain weak and poorly organized, Islamists in these first elections may do better than other parties, but that does not mean they will govern,” said Professor John L. Esposito of Washington’s Georgetown University, and author of “The Future of Islam.”
“Note that both the Brotherhood and Ennahda have said that they will not seek the presidency in upcoming elections,” said Esposito, a specialist in religion and international affairs.
“If at anytime in the future they were able to get enough votes to govern that would be their right,” he added.
In Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood actively participated in the protest movements. The Brotherhood’s Islamic Action Front demands a new electoral law and a constitutional monarchy.
Other regimes exposed to popular revolts have accused the Brotherhood as instigators in an effort to paint the Arab Spring as an Islamist manipulation.
In Libya, Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaaim said this week that the opposition National Transitional Council was not a homogenous entity, and that it contained “different factions within it, of which the most actively involved are the branches of the Muslim Brotherhood.”
In Syria, the regime has insisted that the opposition is led by religious extremists, and is a resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood revolt that was crushed in 1982.
In Yemen, the Yemeni Reform Group is the main representative of the Muslim Brotherhood. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has portrayed the group, which was the main component inside the parliamentary opposition and once allied to him, as the instigators of the anti-regime revolt.
Authorities accuse it of being close to Al-Qaeda.
“The Brotherhood’s program during this phase is to participate in the government, not to govern,” said Lebanese journalist and author Hazem al-Amin.
“They are smarter than to believe that they can govern. This assumption applies to Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen and likely to Syria,” said Amin, author of “Lonely Salafists.”
“Participation is not a matter of abstinence but rather of realism,” said Amin, who writes for the Al-Hayat newspaper.
“But it must be stressed that the Muslim Brotherhood has firm ambitions for power, even if it is deferred.”
