By Mohammad K. Shiyyab
The situation in the Middle East is unpredictable. At best, one can identify many processes as they unfold: the “Arab Spring”, the proliferation of political Islam, increasing Iranian influence in Iraq coupled with the recent US troop withdrawal there, the uncertain and unacceptable situation in Syria, troubled Turkish-Israeli relations and, more importantly, the sharp deterioration in the crisis around Iran. The lack of progress in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking merely complicates these situations further.
In this context, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said that “a lasting peace is an urgent priority as never before, and therefore the conflicting parties must take courageous decisions to make progress on this path.”
Accordingly, most states appreciated and welcomed the Jordanian initiative aimed at reviving the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, which is at the core of the Arab-Israel conflict. The commitment shown by Jordan has once again demonstrated its traditional and historic role as a fully engaged political player committed to the search for peace and regional stability. However, that is not the only reason behind Jordan’s move. There are other motives of relevance to the kingdom’s national security and its vital interests in a very turbulent Middle East.
Jordan has been encouraged and supported by both the Quartet and the United States. President Barack Obama met with Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House on January 17, and both leaders pledged to consult closely to try to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Obama stated that the US and Jordan would encourage the two sides to come back to the table and negotiate in what he described as “a serious fashion”. By hosting the Israeli-Palestinian talks, Jordan is sending a message to the world that it is strategically interested in the final status issues and that the Palestinian conflict remains the core of Middle East issues.
King Abdullah is attempting to keep playing a regional role as the Arab spring changes the face of the Middle East. Both Israelis and Palestinians are in no real position to refuse him. With former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak — who played an active role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process — now out of the equation, the continued commitment of Egypt to peace with Israel is uncertain, and Jordan effectively remains a lone island of stability for Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
Jordan has a particular interest in resuming the peace talks between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel. They may be an important factor in stabilizing the situation in Jordan itself, where recent months have witnessed some excesses in the spirit of the Arab spring, especially considering the fact that Palestinians, who constitute more than 40 percent of all Jordanians, hold key positions in the Jordanian political and economic community.
Inside Jordan, the positions adopted by the opposition — both that of the Muslim Brotherhood as well as many Jordanians who were traditionally loyal to the king and are now calling for reforms — mean that a complete collapse of the peace process could undermine Jordan’s internal stability. Palestinian frustration in the West Bank could snowball into violence, and Jordan is seriously concerned lest this violence cross east of the Jordan River.
It is thus very much in Jordan’s interest to strengthen the moderate forces among Palestinians. Ideally, the way to do this is via a successful peace process with Israel. By hosting the talks, Jordan is seeking, according to Jawad Hamad, director of the Amman-based Middle East Studies Centre, “to give a hand to the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas as they face the expanding role of Hamas as a result of the rise of political Islam in several Arab countries, including Egypt and most recently in Kuwait.”
Moreover, Jordan is directly concerned with Israeli-Palestinian final status issues, including Jerusalem, water, refugees, and borders and security. Securing close to 500 kilometers of border between Jordan and Israel is one of the biggest burdens for Jordan’s military, and consequently for the economy. Yet Israel seems to appreciate this only in words, not deeds. At the same time, Jordan believes that threats to Jerusalem holy sites, or efforts to change the city’s character by driving out Arab Muslim and Christian Jerusalemites, could stop peace for decades to come, particularly with the spread of political Islam in the broader Middle East region.
Still, Jordan has strong hopes that both Israelis and Palestinians will be able to seize this precious opportunity courageously and with the appropriate constructive attitude. Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molcho and his Palestinian counterpart Saeb Erekat have met five times in Jordan-sponsored talks in accordance with a Quartet plan for the sides to agree on a framework for high-level talks. It was reported that after a recent meeting between PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and King Abdullah of Jordan in Aqaba, the PLO had decided to continue talks with Israel until March.
At this stage, no one is optimistic that the talks will produce any sort of breakthrough. But as King Abdullah put it, the talks “will place more weight on the balance in favor of moderation everywhere. If we stop trying, we leave our fates too much to chance, and leave the field to the extremists”.
General (rtd) Mohammad K. Shiyyab is managing director of Middle East Security Consultants in Amman. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
