OSLO: The 2008 Nobel Peace Prize could go to a Chinese or Russian dissident in an attempt to highlight the human rights situation in those countries, where the award would unleash strong reactions, experts said ahead of Friday s announcement.
Chinese dissidents Hu Jia and Gao Zhisheng and Chechen human rights lawyer Lidiya Yusupova are seen as strong contenders this year, as 2008 marks the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
Some observers also predict the prestigious prize could this year be used to bring attention to one of Africa s forgotten wars, but with the names of this year s 197 nominees a well-kept secret, pundits can only speculate.
Nineteen years after awarding the prize to the Dalai Lama, the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee could choose to send a stinging reminder to the Chinese regime to stick to its vow to improve human rights after the Beijing Olympics.
Hu, an imprisoned campaigner for civil rights, environmental protection and AIDS victims in China, and rights lawyer Zhisheng, also currently behind bars, are the most likely to win the prize, according to the head of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo Stein Toennesson.
The Nobel committee has probably been interested in China for years, but perhaps it has not until now found an obvious candidate or maybe it didn t want to cause a disturbance ahead of the Olympics, he told AFP.
The Olympics wrapped up as a success in a lot of respects, but not when it comes to human rights, he added.
Beijing has already voiced its opposition to such an honor for Hu, as is the case each time a Chinese dissident is mentioned as a possible contender for the prestigious prize, calling on the Nobel committee to make the right choice.
Among other Chinese regime opponents seen as potential winners are Wei Jingsheng and Rebiya Kadeer, who represents the Uighur Muslim minority.
Geir Lundestad, the influential secretary of the Nobel committee, has in the past said that sooner or later the Chinese question must be tackled.
Some observers meanwhile say the five independent committee members could instead choose to shine the spotlight on Russia by selecting Lidiya Yusupova for the award.
Yusupova, the former head of the Russian rights group Memorial in Grozny, collated information and statistics about human rights abuses such as torture, kidnapping and executions across Chechnya.
The information helped lead the European Court of Human Rights to find Moscow guilty of numerous human rights abuses.
Niels Butenschoen, a researcher at the Norwegian Center for Human Rights at Oslo University, predicted however that the committee would not choose to stigmatize either Russia or China.
Such a move could have the opposite effect of the one desired in these two countries which are already at odds with the United States, he said.
According to Jan Egeland, the former United Nations emergency relief coordinator and current head of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, the time could instead be ripe for shining the spotlight on forgotten
African wars like the one tearing apart the Democratic Republic of Congo.
One potential candidate in that case would be physician Denis Mukwege, who founded a hospital in Panzi that cares for female victims of sexual violence, of whom there are hundreds of thousands in the DRC.
It s good to expand the concept of peace, Egeland told AFP, referring to the tendency in recent years to stretch the boundaries of the Peace Prize to include non-traditional areas like environmentalism.
But you shouldn t leave behind those who fit into the initial definition, meaning those who work for victims of war and against armed conflicts, he insisted.
The Cluster Munitions Coalition (CMC) has also been mentioned as a potential laureate this year, after more than 100 countries reached agreement to ban cluster bombs, which are particularly harmful to civilians.
Other possible winners include French-Colombian former hostage Ingrid Betancourt, head of the Zimbabwean opposition Morgan Tsvangirai and Pakistani judge Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
Vietnamese dissident Buddhist monk Thich Quang Do, Finnish mediator Martti Ahtisaari and activist rockers Bono and Bob Geldof also figure on the list, as do the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program at a time when food prices are soaring.
Last year, the prize went to former US vice president Al Gore and the UN panel on climate change IPCC. -AFP
