External debt registered $134.8bn in March 2021, up by about $11.3bn compared to June 2020. This increase came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by $9.6bn, alongside the depreciation of the US exchange rate vis-a-vis other currencies of external debt, which led to an increase of $1.7bn in book value.
Breakdown by Maturity
By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed its pattern of long-term debt predominance in March 2021.
Long-term debt accounted for $121.5bn or 90.2% of the total external debt, whereas short-term debt accounted for $13.3bn or 9.8%.
By residual maturity1, short-term debt accounted for 25.8% of total external debt in March 2021, compared to 9.8% classified by original maturity.
Meanwhile, long-term debt accounted for 74.2% of total external debt, in comparison to 90.2% by original maturity.
Breakdown by Type
– Long-term external debt registered $121.5bn (90.2% of total external debt) at end of March 2021, up by about $8.9bn compared to the end of June 2020; of which:
– Bonds issued abroad (non-resident holdings) reached $28.7bn, up by 20.0% relative to June 2020. Bond outstanding stock includes:
- A new issuance of Green bonds issued in USD reached an outstanding stock of about $737.2m.
- About $4.4bn of Eurobonds denominated in euro.
- About $355.4m of sovereign notes
- Roughly $23.2bn of Eurobonds issued in USD.
Multilateral institutions’ debt reached some $48.0bn, up by 11.6%.
– Other bilateral debt amounted to some $11.2bn, up by 9.2%.
– Buyers’ & suppliers’ credit reached about $12.1bn, up by 6.6%.
– Repurchase Agreements (Repo) recorded $4.0bn at the end of March 2021 up by 2.2%.
– Conversely, rescheduled bilateral debt reached around $1.9bn, down by 23.4%.
– Long-term deposits placed at the CBE by some Arab countries decreased to amount to $15.2bn, down by 11.7%.
These deposits are distributed as follows: $5.7bn for the United Arab Emirates, $5.5bn for Saudi Arabia; and $4.0bn for Kuwait.
Non-guaranteed debt of the private sector registered $410.2m, down by 2.8%.
Short-term debt increased by about $2.4bn to about $13.3bn or 9.8% of total external debt. Its ratio to net international reserves edged up to 32.9% at end of March 2021 from 28.5% at end of June 2020.
Breakdown by Currency
Measuring the currency composition of Egypt’s external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure to currency markets’ volatility.
The currency composition of the debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency ($84.2bn).
This includes other outstanding obligations in the US dollar to creditors other than the USA such as international institutions.
Other major currencies recorded $50.6bn, distributed as follows:
SDRs was the runner-up ($21.1bn), followed by the euro ($17.4bn), the Chinese yuan ($3.8bn), the Kuwaiti dinar ($3.6bn), the Japanese yen ($2.6bn), and other currencies ($2.1bn).
Breakdown by Creditor
Debt distribution by creditor indicates that $48.0bn were owed to multilateral institutions (mainly; IMF $20.0bn, IBRD $11.6bn, EIB $5.1bn, and ADF and AfDB $3.0bn). Additionally, $24.3bn was owed to Arab countries mainly; UAE (8.0% of total external debt), Saudi Arabia (5.4%), and Kuwait (4.4%).
Meanwhile, $10.0bn came from five members of Paris Club countries, namely; Germany ($3.0bn), Japan ($2.5bn), France ($2.0bn), UK ($2.0bn), and USA ($0.5bn). In addition, $7.2bn was owed to China.
Breakdown by Debtor Sector
The structure of Egypt’s external debt by debtor sector at the end of March 2021 reveals that:
– The general government remains the main obligor, with a share of around 59.7% of external debt.
Its debt rose by $11.1bn in March 2021 compared to June 2020, reaching $80.5bn.
– Banks’ external debt increased by about $1.8bn to $13.8bn.
– Other sectors’ debt increased by about $0.5bn to $14.8bn.
– On the other hand, the Central Bank’s external debt decreased by about $2.1bn to $25.7bn.
External Debt Service
Debt service reached $10.8bn (installments repayment registered $7.7bn, and paid interest $3.1bn) during July/March 2020/2021, compared to $13.7bn during July/March 2019/2020. This decrease was mainly due to the decrease in installments repayment by about $2.8bn.
External Debt Indicators
As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, Egypt’s debt remains within manageable limits.
Based on IMF classification, comparing Egypt’s key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups shows that:
Egypt’s debt stock to GDP represented 34.7% in March 2021 (56.3% for Latin America and the Caribbean and 53.9% for the Middle East and Central Asia).
Egypt’s short-term external debt to total external debt in March 2021 registered 9.8% (12.9% for Latin America and the Caribbean, and 22.2% for the Middle East and Central Asia).
Egypt’s debt-service ratio registered 35.7% in the year ended in March 2021 (59.0% for Latin America and the Caribbean, and 31.8% for the Middle East and Central Asia).
Meanwhile, debt service to current transfers represented 20.5% in the year ended in March 2021.
